Is There A History Of Weather Impacting Football?
Simply put, yes, the weather has historically been able to impact football at all levels, just like it does for any sport that happens outdoors. It has even decided this country’s championship, as there is a history of how extreme Grey Cup weather impacts the outcome of the game. Things like wind, temperature, precipitation, as well as fog and smog, can impact a football game in many ways.
How Wind Can Impact Football?
Wind can have a massive impact on both the passing game and the kicking game in football. It almost always makes passing the ball, at least against the wind, much more difficult. Brian Burke of ESPN wrote about how a quarterback’s throws are impacted by the winds. For this, he used adjusted yards per pass attempt, or AYPA. The formula can be seen as below:
(Passing Yards + 20(Passing Touchdowns) – 45(Interceptions Thrown))/(Passing Attempts)
For example, if in a singular game, a quarterback had 250 passing yards, and threw for three touchdowns and a single interception on 40 pass attempts, we can plug in the numbers to find the following:
[250 + 20(3) – 45(1)]/40
(250 + 60 – 45)/40
265/40 = 6.625
The quarterback in our example would have an AYPA of 6.625. AYPA essentially rewards quarterbacks who complete passes that are completed, both in quality and quantity, and those who throw touchdowns, while punishing those who throw interceptions.
In his summary, Burke studied regular season NFL games from 2002 – 2006, providing a large enough sample size to account for different games having varying levels of talent from the quarterback, offensive line, receivers and all defensive players. He found that when there was almost no wind, home quarterbacks had an AYPA of about 6.4 on average, with those on the away team slightly behind with an average of 6.1. The average AYPA would slowly decrease in an almost exactly linear fashion as winds increased. Winds of 32 km/h (20 mph) gave home quarterbacks an average AYPA of about 5.6, while away quarterbacks were once again slightly behind at 5.4. This caused a drop of 0.8 yards per attempt from minimal wind to heavy winds from home quarterbacks, with away quarterbacks showing a very similar 0.7 AYPA drop.
The same research by Burke also indicated that a game with light winds will have about 65 passes and 55 runs, while when there are heavy winds, there will be about 60 passing and running plays each, meaning that teams will favour the running game slightly more in windy conditions.
On a similar note, the kicking game can also be impacted by the wind. Winds of less than 24 km/h (15 mph) have very little impact on the kicking game, making the difference between a hit and a miss is about 1% in cases compared to a field goal in no wind. However, once winds reach over 32 km/h (20 mph), there is a difference of over 11% between how often a kicker is expected to make the kick vs. how often they do. This is especially true when kicking against the wind. Kickoffs and punts are also impacted, as kicking with the assistance of the wind often leads to better field position for the team with the wind at their back. This often causes teams to want the wind in the 4th quarter, getting to make game-deciding decisions with the wind at their back.
How Temperature Can Impact Football
Heat can certainly impact a football game. Brian Burke has once again noticed that heat does have a minor impact on play calling. In games where the temperature is near 38 C (100 F), there will usually be just over 65 passes per game, and ones where the temperature is below freezing will average around 60 passes per game. The number of runs per game will hover in the area of 55 – 60 per game, regardless of temperature. This means that there will be an extra play or two per quarter in hotter weather, and that play will almost certainly be a pass. Strangely, extreme heat makes passing less efficient, as AYPA also drops by about 1 between 27 C (80 F) and 38 C (100 F). The same drop in AYAP often occurs when temperatures are below freezing, with almost all moderate temperatures seeing a very consistent AYPA of around 6, with home teams a touch higher than away teams across the board.
All of the additional gear almost means that players are more prone to heat stroke. This is especially true in football, due to the heavy padding, and extreme bursts of speed by receivers, running backs, defensive backs and other players who are dependent on their speed.
Temperatures below freezing can also lead to snow instead of rain.
Can Precipitation Impact Football?
Both rain and snow can have a drastic impact on the game of football, although there are some similarities. “In general, teams will shift their game plan when it’s raining a lot and hand the ball off more and throw the ball less – that means generally lower-scoring, and it kind of eats the clock a little bit more, as well,” says sports meteorologist Kevin Roth. This more cautious approach that teams have comes from the fact that a wet, slippery ball is more difficult to both throw and catch, while the impact on a handoff is minimal by comparison. This is also true in the snow.
However, snow does have another impact. “It’s actually a benefit for the offence when it’s really snowy because your footing is so difficult that the defence can’t keep up,” Roth said. “It makes it hard to rush the passer, it slows the entire game down when the footing is that bad in the snow, and it means the quarterback has more time to sit back in the pocket, see his reads, make his choices.” Heavy snow can also impact visibility, especially when combined with heavy winds. This can swing the pendulum the other way around, as throwing the ball when you are unable to see the receiver, or the receiver is less likely to make the catch, benefits a more cautious running game, and shorter passes instead of longer ones.
Another thing that can happen in precipitation-heavy weather, thunderstorms, can cause an entire game to get delayed due to safety concerns for the players, staff and fans.
How Fog And Smog Can Impact Football
Fog and smog are weather patterns that can lower visibility. There are points where it can lower visibility to about 20 yards. Since the quarterback is usually about 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage, this makes passes beyond 15 yards downfield very difficult and also cuts off passes near the sidelines. This is yet another condition that leads to an increase in run plays. It can also cause refs to miss calls more often than usual, simply due to them not being able to see the infraction.