What Is El Niño?
El Niño is the largest weather system in the world and can impact the weather in almost every continent for several months at a time.
How Does El Niño form?
El Niño occurs when winds in the Pacific Ocean are disrupted. Usually, winds blow warm water from the east coasts of the South Pacific Ocean (the west coast of South America) to the western Pacific Ocean, near Australia. These winds are called trade winds. As this happens, the warm water in the East Pacific is replaced with cooler water that was previously below the surface. This is called upwelling. For this reason, the water in the western part of the ocean is generally warmer than the water in the eastern part of the ocean.
However, if trade winds are weakened, stopped or otherwise disrupted, the warmer water won’t reach its destination. This means that the area of warm water has changed, which disrupts rain and wind above the entire ocean. This creates a domino effect throughout the world, where winds blow in different directions in surrounding areas, temperatures in these same areas change, and rain in these areas happens in different locations than normal. Then these changes cause similar changes in other areas, until the entire world is impacted in some way.
While this might seem mundane, it can have a drastic impact on the lives of everyone around the world when it does happen.
How Can El Niño Impact Weather?
Although El Niño can impact everywhere, it usually has its largest impact on the tropical regions. Places such as Peru that are often dry can become flooded. On the other hand, Indonesia, and parts of India and Brazil, which are usually very rainy, can suffer from droughts. Colder places might warm up, and warmer places near the equator might experience large amounts of snow.
Even places not directly impacted by El Niño can often suffer indirect consequences. For example, if drought or flooding causes crop shortages, this can impact world trade and the economy as a whole, which can cause starvation even in places experiencing completely normal weather. It is also speculated that the iceberg that sank the Titanic was created by the effects of El Niño. It is also believed that several El Niños in a row from 1789 to 1793 caused a crop shortage that was partially responsible for the French Revolution.
How Common Is El Niño?
On average, there will be one El Niño every 3-5 years. However, there is no set schedule. On one hand, it is possible to have El Niño multiple years in a row. On the other hand, it is also possible to have a decade or even longer without an El Niño. Although some scientists can predict an upcoming El Niño months in advance with some reliability, it is nearly impossible for an ordinary person. This is because someone needs access to information from the Tropical Pacific Observing System (which depends on data from radiosondes, buoys, and satellites) to predict with any accuracy, as well as great knowledge of meteorology.
What Parts Of The World Does El Niño impact?
Anywhere in the world can be impacted by El Niño. However, there are some places that are impacted more than others.
One of the largest impacts of El Niño is the large amount of flooding. The west coast of South America, where the upwelling process is disrupted, with Peru being the most prone. However, any country on the west coast of South America and Central America, as well as California, are all at a greatly increased risk of floods in years that feature El Niño. South-western USA, central Asia and the Horn of Africa are other areas in the world that are also more prone to increased flooding in years where there is an El Niño.
The other massive impact of El Niño is the increased risk of drought in other places. Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia such as India, Equatorial Africa, and Central America are the places in the world that are most prone to droughts when there is an El Niño.
What Can El Niño Do In Canada?
El Niño doesn’t have as much impact in Canada as it does in other places. It can have a relatively large impact in the winter, making things much milder, especially in Western, Northwestern and Central Canada. These places will generally have less snow as a result.
Although this can impact the entire country, it will have less of an impact on the East Coast of the country. The Maritime/Atlantic provinces, New Brunswick, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia will generally experience very little, if any, change in El Niño years, even during the winter. The territories will also generally not be impacted as much as the rest of the country.
What Is The History Of El Niño Science?
El Niño was first noted in Peru in the 1500s by those who called it “el niño”, which is Spanish for “The Boy”, and when capitalized, it means “Christ Child”, due to the fact that the phenomenon tended to occur around Christmas time.
Later on, in the 1930s, a team of climatologists led by Sir Gilbert Walker discovered that the changes in Peru, as well as the changes in the rest of the world, and a change in air pressure over the Pacific Ocean were all happening simultaneously. They then agreed to call this larger system El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Now the terms ENSO and El Niño are used interchangeably by scientists when they speak to the public about the phenomenon.